摘要
采用指数增长模型和向量自回归VAR等模型对中国汽车普及进行预测分析。采用协整误差校正模型,分析2008年全球金融危机对中国汽车市场需求的影响。根据汽车普及存在相似性现象,提出了一种新的预测方法,对中国中长期汽车市场需求进行了预测。
In this article, an exponential increasing model and a VAR model are adopted to forecast and analyze the automobile popularization of China. A cointegration and error correction model is adopted to analyze the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 on automobile market posed base on the similarity phenomenon exists in automobile＇s automobile market demand of China. demand of China. A new forecasting method is pro- popularization to forecast the medium and long term
出处
《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期38-44,共7页
Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)
关键词
汽车
市场需求
预测模型
automobile
market demand
forecasting model
