摘要
生态学将在生态系统的管理和生命支持系统的可持续发展上发挥核心作用。对生态系统的定量研究是生态系统管理研究的核心和前沿。研究借助于金融资产风险管理方法,结合生态资产价值化和生态系统风险研究建立了基于生态资产的生态系统风险分析方法,给出了对区域(流域)生态系统总体风险进行度量的分析模型和计算公式,并以民勤绿洲生态系统为例进行了实证研究。实证研究结果表明:未来3a内民勤绿洲生态资产价值损失在95%置信水平下不会超过1.92亿元。所建立的生态资产风险分析模型对区域生态系统管理具有一定的意义。
Ecology is playing a core role in ecosystem management and in sustainable development of the life support system. Quantitative study of the ecosystem is crucial in ecosystem management and is becoming the research frontier. In this study, new method for measuring ecosystem risk is established by combining capitalization of natural asserts and financial risk method. Some models to calculate the total ecosystem risk for a region or watershed are established. A case study of the method is conducted in Minqin oasis ecosystem. The case study shows how to calculate the risk value of an ecosystem. The result of the ease study indicates that the maximum loss of the region＇s ecosystem value is no more than 192 million RMB yuan at 95% confidential level in three years. The method and formulae established for ecosystem risk analysis are useful in ecosystem management.
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第7期3811-3817,共7页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(30770333)
国家留学基金资助项目
