摘要
台风暴雨的灾害性天气预报是科研与业务都特别关注的问题,因此其预报技术方法的研究显得尤为必要。采用综合多级相似预报技术(简记为SMAT),对"浙东南沿海"区域台风过程所引发的暴雨天气进行研究。该技术利用数值模拟结果对样本间的相似程度进行描述,同时将描述样本相似程度的物理量由单因子拓展为因子组合。通过对13年间历史资料的试验,得出了台风暴雨预报模型(SMAT-Ty-phoon)。详细介绍了该模型的试验过程和试验结果,给出了重要试验数据参数。台风暴雨的相似试验结果显示,建模时的CSI(forecast successful index)高于0.7,且漏报率为0。在试报阶段,CSI也能保持在0.45以上。此外,台风暴雨预报模型的准确率(0.72)和漏报率(0.26)与业界同行相比,也具有一定优势。在引进数值产品和多因子求相似技术后,试验结果证明SMAT具有较强的平均预报能力,说明了所得到的台风暴雨预报模型是有优势的。最后,通过对试验的分析,得出了对当地台风暴雨发生可能起重要作用的一些物理量,对于这些指标,预报员在业务预报中应给予足够考虑;同时也给出了在做类似相似试验中关键区和相似因子选取时的一些建议。
Typhoon is one of the most important disasters in the southeast region along ocean in China, and it can cause strong rainstorm and heavy rainfall. Based on the opinion of stressing typhoon type rainstorm forecast importance, a new forecast technology SMAT （i. e. synthetic multilevel analogous forecast technology） is used to study typhoon caused rainstorm in the southeast region of Zhejiang Province. Since it is seldom used as analogous elements in previous analogous forecast method, the numerical model integral products are used in the third level forecast in SMAT. In SMAT, similarity degree between samples is described by meteorological elements combination, which makes further progress than using single element to describe similarity in earlier analogous forecast. Day-to-day sounding data of National Meteorological Center, weather map data and surface observation data in study range during 1990- 2002 are used, and forecast model of typhoon rainstorm （SMAT-Typhoon） is completed. New forecast system＇s research process, study result and key parameters are introduced, which can demonstrate strong capability of forecast model. CSI （forecast successful index） is a key index in evaluating rainstorm forecast level, and its mean value is 0.35 in the current field. The value will be declined in heavy rainstorm forecast. Results show that CSI of rainstorm trial is larger than 0.7, and POD （lost-forecast rate） is 0 in exploiting model phase. In the test phase of forecast model, CSI can also be larger than 0.45. Moreover, according to COR （forecast precise rate, 0.72） and POD （0.26） of SMAT-Typhoon, they are also better than those from other work. According to effect analysis of trail and revision in established model, it shows that the meteorological elements are very important while analog range is less important to trail effect in describing analog degree. This can direct the later similar trail： based on the prime evaluation of various elements, physical elements should be paid much more at
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第6期3-12,共10页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2004CB418301资助
