摘要
当前,大多数人认为我国贸易顺差来源于国内实际因素,而忽略了国际分工对贸易收支的作用以及贸易品的异质性问题。国际贸易可以分为一般贸易、加工贸易和其他贸易,当前我国贸易顺差主要来源于加工贸易。本文认为国际分工决定国际贸易,我国在东亚产品内国际分工的地位导致了我国加工贸易的大量顺差,并运用格兰杰因果检验验证了这个结论。当前全球经济危机导致我国出口和进口的同比增长率大幅下降,但只要东亚分工格局未变,我国大量外贸顺差的局面就不会改变。面临经济危机的冲击,从短期来看,我国应当实施鼓励出口的措施,例如人民币贬值、提高出口退税率和积极开拓新的世界市场等;而从长期来看,则应通过提高自主创新能力和推动产业升级来逐步扭转我国在东亚产品内分工中的不利地位。
Most researches think that the Chinese trade surplus comes from the domestic factors. They ignore the effect of international division of labor on the balance of trade and the heterogenicity of tradable goods. International trade can be divided into normal trade, processing trade and other trade. Most of Chinese trade surplus comes from processing trade. The paper thinks that international trade is determined by international division of labor and the great amount of processing trade surplus is caused by the intra-product specialization in East Asia, which is proved by the Granger Causality Test. At present, global economic crisis causes the year-on-year growth rate of Chinese export and import decreases sharply, but its impact on trade surplus is small for the reason that global economic crisis can＇t change the intra-product specialization in East Asia. Faced with the impact of global economic crisis, in the short term, our country should take measures to encourage export, which include RMB depreciation, raising the export tax refund rate and developing new world markets, etc. In the long term, our country should improve the self-renovation capability and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第7期61-70,共10页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社科基金项目(08BJY116)
广东省自然科学基金博士启动项目(8451042001001878)的阶段性成果
广州市哲学社会科学发展"十一五"规划2007年课题(07B2)
广东省普通高校人文社科重点研究基地创新团队项目(07JDT-DXM79003)的资助
关键词
贸易顺差
加工贸易
产品内国际分工
Trade surplus
Processing trade
Intra-product specialization in East Asia
