摘要
针对公务航空业务量波动性和随机性较大的特点,以及我国公务航空起步晚、统计数据少的现状,提出了灰色与马尔柯夫相耦合的灰色马尔柯夫预测模型,指出这两种模型的科学组合,既综合了GM(1,1)灰色模型和马尔柯夫预测各自的优点,又提高了预测的精度,最后,通过对我国香港机场公务机起降量预测,验证了该预测方法的有效性。
Considering the fluctuation and randomicity of business aviation movements, the situation of late-developed business aviation and the lack of statistical data, a new model called grey Markov model is presented based on analyzing grey theory and Markov theory. It points out the two prediction methods were scientifically combined, which generalized merits of the ones and increased forecasting precision. Finally, the method was verified satisfactorily through business aircraft movements prediction of Hongkong airport.
出处
《山西建筑》
2009年第20期10-12,共3页
Shanxi Architecture
