摘要
用灰色模型进行地壳形变分析和预测,通常依靠位置信息建立预测模型,但该模型无法充分反映点位变化规律。在对已有速度信息进行定性分析的基础上,利用缓冲算子对地壳形变位置序列进行调整,然后用GM(1,1)模型进行预测。利用实测数据对该方法进行验证,结果表明,该方法克服了单纯使用GM(1,1)模型预测的缺陷,有效提高了整体预测精度。
The GM （ 1,1 ） model is generally founded on the position information when it is used in local crustal deformation prediction. However, it can not fully reflect the change of points. Therefore the GM （ 1,1 ） model based on buffer operator is proposed. The position sequence of crustal deformation is pre-adjusted by buffer operator according to the qualitative analysis of the velocity information before forecasting. By using the real data processing as an example, it is revealed that the prediction accuracy is greatly improved.
出处
《大地测量与地球动力学》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期91-94,共4页
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics
基金
国家自然科学基金(40774001)
国家“863”计划(2007AA12Z331)
关键词
缓冲算子
灰色模型
地壳形变
预测
位置序列
buffer operator
grey model
crustal deformation
forecasting
position sequence
