摘要
本文利用汇率不完全传递理论,对2005年到2008年初我国出口企业的商品价格变动进行研究,结果发现,我国出口商品的汇率传递弹性较小且行业差别不显著;面对人民币升值带来的出口价格上升压力,出口企业减少价格加成的空间有限,主要是通过减少成本来降低汇率传递度的。据此本文认为由于出口商能够吸收一定幅度的汇率变动,短期内汇率政策效果不明显;但长期来看,人民币汇率升值对我国产业结构的调整应具有显著作用。从根本上来说,只有转变我国的经济增长方式,包括通过调整收入分配政策、有效提高内需、转变外贸增长方式等,才能实现我国经济的内外均衡发展。
The paper studies the price changes of export goods in China from 2005 to the beginning of 2008 by using the theory of incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The results show that the exchange rate pass-through elasticity of export goods is lower and there are no significant differences among industries. With the rising export prices caused by RMB appreciation, reducing the markup ratio by export firms is limited and it mainly depends on reducing costs to lower the exchange rate pass-through effect. Because the exchange rate fluctuation can be partially absorbed by exporters, the exchange rate policy has no better perform： ance in the short run, but in the long run, RMB appreciation should significantly affect the adjustment of industrial structure in China. Fundamentally speaking, we can balance economic development only through changing the economic growth mode, including adjusting income distribution policy, raising domestic demands effectively and changing trade growth mode.
出处
《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第3期68-75,共8页
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
关键词
人民币汇率
不完全传递
出口商品价格
RMB exchange rate
incomplete pass-through
prices of export goods
