摘要
港口物流和航空物流是现代物流产业的重要组成部分,与经济发展具有密切的关系。应用Granger因果关系检验法检验广州、深圳和香港1990—2007年间的港口和航空物流增量与当地和包括港澳在内的大珠三角城市群GDP之间增量的因果关系,从定量角度分别研究了广州、深圳和香港港口和航空物流业对城市和区域经济增长的作用,运用回归模型确定港口物流和航空与经济增长之间的数量关系,发现它们呈非线性的三次曲线关系,然后采用边际效应和弹性分析分别计算出三地港口和航空物流业的单位增长给当地和区域经济带来的增长额度,最后提出协调区域物流产业,促进区域经济发展的若干对策建议。
The port ＆ airport logistics industry has relationship with local and regional economic growth closely, according to the 1990-2007 ＇s statistics data of the port and airport logistics industry and the Gross Domestic Product （GDP） in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, city groups including Hong Kong and Macao in Pearl River Delta, substitute GDP for economic growth and volume of freight handled and container TEU in coastal ports, volume of freight and post handled in airport for the port and airport logistics industry. At first, the author uses the Granger-causality test to analyze the causality between the port and airport logistics industry development in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and local and regional of the city groups including Hong Kong and Macao in Pearl River Delta economic growth. The second, the action of port ＆ airport logistics on civic and regional economy explored in quantitative angle, and regression models were used to confirm the function between port ＆ airport logistics industry and local ＆ regional economy increase, the relation of the non- line and cubic curve discovered, and adopts margin and elasticity analysis to define the increasing number of local and regional economics resulted in port and airport logistics industry. At last, some correlative countermeasure suggestions to keep the balance between GDP growth and port ＆ airport logistics increment put forward in this paper.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期946-951,共6页
Economic Geography
基金
广东省科技计划项目(软科学)(编号:2005B70101102)资助
关键词
港口物流
航空物流
经济增长
作用
定量分析
port logistics
airport logistics
economic growth
effect
quantitative analysis
