摘要
利用2003—2006年6-9月日用电量、日最高用电负荷和日气象资料中选出121个高温日,对比评估高温日和6-9月气象条件对用电影响,结果表明：高温期间日用电量和日最高用电负荷增加大的风险高于6-9月,分别建立高温日期间和6-9月日用电量和日最高用电负荷气象变化量预评估和后评估模型并分析拟合误差,回归效果非常显著,高温日模型的拟合效果好于6-9月。2007年高温预评估和后评估模型试运行实例表明：试运行评估结果良好,但连续高温日后温度有所降低时预评估误差相对较大,连续高温酷热中雨日后评估误差相对较大。
The impact of meteorological condition on the electric consumption in shanghai was appraised using the data such as the daily electrical consumption, maximum electricity load and meteorological elements from June to September of 2003--2006 and 121 megathermal days of 2003--2006. The results showed that the risk of the high-increasing of daily electricity consumption and maximum electricity load in megathermal days were higher than that from June to September. The fore-and post-evaluation model of the meteorological variation of the daily electricity consumption and maximum electricity load were constructed, and the fitting errors of the model were analyzed from June to September and in megathermal days, the regression of the model were significant statistically, the fitting results of the model in megatherreal days were better than those from June to September. The evaluation model made the satisfied performance from June to September and the megathermal days of 2007, the performable results of the model in megathermal days were better than those from June to September, but the fore-evaluation errors tended to increase when the sudden fall-down of temperature occured during persistent high temperature days, similarly, the post-evaluation error of the model tended to increase on rainy day during the high temperature days.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第B12期210-217,共8页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
上海市气象局面上项目“上海地区高温气象灾害评估技术的研究和应用”资助
关键词
上海地区
日用电量
气象条件
日最高用电负荷
高温日
Shanghai
Daily electricity comsumption
Meteorological condion
Maximum electricity load
Megathermal day
