摘要
本文应用 LTC方法首次完成了中国随机人口预测。给出了从 1 990年到 2 0 50年的人口总数预测的期望值和置信区间 ,并对确性人口预测方案的实现可能性进行了评价 ,考察了提高实现我国重要的人口目标的可能途径 ,这是对
The LTC method is used in this paper to yield the first population stochastic forcasting of China. The expectations and 95% confidence intervals of China's total population from 1990 to 2050 are given, the evaluation about the possibility of United Nations' population project are made, and the way to promote the feasibility of China's population objects is developed, which is a contribution to LTC method.
出处
《系统工程理论方法应用》
1998年第1期37-41,共5页
Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目 ( No.79370 0 6 1)
