摘要
根据临颍1960-2005年46 a的气象资料,分析了气温、降水的年代际、年际变化趋势及其对农业的影响。结果表明:随着全球气候变暖,临颍年平均气温变化趋势近似"V"字型,上世纪60年代偏高,以后逐渐下降,80年代处于谷点,是最冷期,90年代后显著升温进入暖期。各季变化趋势不尽一致,冬季呈逐年增高趋势,增温幅度为0.28℃/10 a;夏季呈逐年降低趋势,降低幅度为0.21℃/10 a;春、秋两季变化较复杂。从80年代到90年代,四季均明显升温。90年代后,临颍气温显著升高(冬季最明显),降水偏少,发生旱涝灾害频率和强度增大,1991-1997年以旱为主,1998年后降水偏多,但年际变化大,2001、2002年旱,2003、2004年涝。气温由冷向暖转型突变点出现在1994年,暖冬增大了各种病虫(卵)越冬存活率,加重了病虫危害程度,使冬小麦各生育期提前;降水减少及年际起伏加大了农业水资源供需矛盾和农业生产的不稳定性。
According to the meteorology data from 1960 to 2005 in Linying, the interdecadal and interannual change tendency of the temperature and precipitation, and their influence on agriculture were analyzed. The results showed the change tendency of the mean annual temperature was similar to “v” with the global warming; it was high in 1960s, after then the temperature declined gradually ; it arrived at bottom in 1980s, and the temperature increased obviously and stepped into warm period in 1990 s. The seasonal change tendency of the temperature is different. The temperature increased 0.28 ℃/10a in winter, and it decreased 0.21%/10a in summer, and the change is more complicated in spring and autumn. However, there is obvious warming up tendency in four seasons from 1980s to 1990s. The analysis showed the obvious characteristics were the increasing temperature （especially in winter） and decreasing rainfall, drought and flood disasters frequency and intensity increasing. The drought was the main feature from 1991 to 1997, and the precipitation increased after 1998, but the difference between every year was big; 2001 and 2002 were drought years; 2003 and 2004 were flood years. The year in which the temperature changed from cold to warm was 1994. Warm winter raised overwinter survival of the pest （ egg）, aggravated the pest disasters, brought forward the growth period of winter wheat. The precipitation reduction and annual transformation aggravated agricultural water supply and demand contradictions and the insta- bility of agricultural production.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2009年第2期71-77,共7页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
关键词
气温
降水
变化
影响
air temperature
precipitation
change
influence
