摘要
本文介绍作者创建的嵌套式决策理论的基本框架。揭示了决策对象的结构冗余现象并给予了定量度量 ,进而从结构类型上给出了决策问题的一个分类 ,指出了病态结构问题的根本性“病态”特征是其分形结构。运用动力系统分析方法 ,提出了复杂系统决策思维的基本机制。按照分形求解途径 ,引入了一种面向病态结构问题的决策建模方式——嵌套建模支持。嵌套决策理论将描述性与规范性决策理论融为一体 ,是一种面向复杂决策的综合集成新理论 。
This paper introduces the fundamental framework of the nested decision theory which is proposed by the author. The phenomena of structure redundance for decision objects is brought to light, moreover a taxonomy of decision problems is given. The feature of an ill-structured problem which is due to its fractal structure is pointed out. The fundamental mechanism of the decision making for complex systems is put forward by utilizing the analysis method of the dynamic system. The nested modeling support, which is a new decision modeling way for ill-structure problems, is the nested decision theory combines the descriptive and normative approaches as a whole, it can offer the guidence to the development of decision support systems as a new theory for complex decision inspired by meta-synthetic approach.
出处
《系统工程理论方法应用》
1998年第1期51-57,共7页
Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications
基金
国家自然科学基金 ( 795 0 0 0 0 7)
武汉市晨光计划 ( 95 5 0 1 0 4 8-2 0 )联合资助项目
关键词
决策理论
决策支持系统
综合集成
混沌
decision theory, decision support system, ill-structure problem, modeling support, meta-synthesis, fractal, chaos, structure redundance
