摘要
煤层气产业为复杂社会经济系统,通过系统分析确定了煤层气产业的社会经济、市场、政策、资源环境及煤层气产业五个子系统,在此基础上建立中国煤层气产业系统动力学模型。分析了模型的合理性,并对社会经济环境变化、国家政策的变化、投资方式的变化、国家能源市场控制的变化等几个主要方面进行预测分析,并对降低单位国民经济产值能耗的变化、改变煤层气定价方式、调整国家煤层气价格补贴等方面提出政策建议。结果表明该模型设计较为合理,能够较为系统的模拟煤层气产业发展中的基本状况,对于预测煤层气产业的动态预测及政策建议有意义。
China coal bed methane industry as a complex social and economic system could be analyzed with systematic method. First five sub-systems including society and economy system, market system, policy system, resource and environmental system and coal bed methane industry system were recognized. Based on above analysis established the system＇s dynamics model and analyzed its reasonability. Furthermore conducted modeling on the changes of some main aspects such as society and economy, CBM policy, investment way, energy market control and came up with some useful policy suggestions over reducing energy consumption level, changing price rule, adjusting national price subsidy of CBM…and so on. The results showed that this model was reasonable to model basic condition in the future＇s development, which was helpful to predict industry dynamics and to give policy suggestions.
出处
《未来与发展》
CSSCI
2009年第6期29-33,25,共6页
Future and Development
