摘要
结合VisualBasic.NET编程技术提出了二次和三次指数平滑预测模型参数α的优化改进方法,建立了参数最优的二次和三次指数平滑法预测模型.基于锦屏一级水电站左岸高边坡工程部分监测数据,应用指数平滑法基本原理建立二次指数平滑法和三次指数平滑法预测模型,并应用该模型对左岸高边坡某工程部位监测位移等变形物理量进行预测预报分析,结果表明,改进的预测模型预测结果准确有效,与后期实际监测位移比较误差较小.
Associated with the VisualBasic. NET programming technology, the modified optimization method for the coefficient a of the quadric and triple exponential smoothing prediction model was put forward. The optimization prediction model for a was established using the quadric and triple exponential method. Based on some monitoring data of the high slope on the left bank of the Jinping Stage 1 Hydropower Station, the above model was employed to analyze the displacement of the high slope. The conclusion is that the results predicted by the present modified model are accurate and effeetive and agree well with the observed ones.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期313-316,共4页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(50539110)
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划(2006BAB04A06)
关键词
改进指数平滑法
岩体边坡
变形预测
锦屏一级水电站
modified exponential smoothing method
rock slope
deformation prediction
Jinping Hydropower Station
