摘要
基于模糊集理论,耦合遗传算法,量化分析降雨的量级、空间分布和时程分配产生的不确定性对流量模拟的影响。雨量量级的不确定性使用模糊集概念表示,运用遗传算法对时段雨量在时间上进行随机解集,并通过在各子流域上采用不同的时间解集模式以同时考虑降雨时程分配和空间分布不确定性。应用TOPMODEL对资水流域新宁水文站洪水过程进行模拟研究,结果表明,雨量不确定性的传播对洪水预报的影响处于主导地位,降雨时空分布引起的不确定性对洪水模拟的影响次之。此外,通过对1 h和0.5 h解集结果的比较发现,本文中采用1 h作为模拟的时间步长已可以较充分反映雨量的时间变异性。
In order to study the propagation effect of the precipitation uncertainties on the flood forecasting, the paper presents a methodology combining the fuzzy set theory with the genetic algorithm to quantify the effect of the uncertainty on the discharge simulation due to the precipitation magnitude and temporal-spatial distribution. The uncertainty of precipitation magnitude is represented by the fuzzy set concepts. The random disaggregation of precipitation into the shorter time step takes into account the uncertainty associated with temporal distribution of precipitation. The spatial variations of rainfall fields are represented by the different temporal disaggregation pattems within the sub-catchments. All the kinds of uncertainties are propagated through the fuzzy extension principle. Based on the methodology above, the TOPMODEL is used to simulate the flood events in the up- stream area of the Xinning hydrological station. The results show that the uncertainty in the magnitude is more significant than the uncertainty resulting from the spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation. Moreover, there is no more difference between the precipitation uncertainty with time step of 1 hour and that with time step of 0.5 hour. It means the simulated time step of 1 hour is able to represent the temporal variation of precipitation in the study area.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期422-427,共6页
Advances in Water Science
基金
教育部、国家外专局高等学校学科创新引智计划资助项目(B08048)
教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助项目(IRT0717)~~
