摘要
中国近期的农业政策出现了新的变化,本文意在对这些新政策可能带来的影响做出评估,并把这些结果和近年的实际情况进行比较。全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)的模拟结果显示,取消农业税和"四补贴"政策对粮食增产和农民增收有较为明显的效果,但粮食增产受到价格波动的影响更大;由于受到WTO规则的限制,"微量允许"措施对粮食增产的作用最大不会超过9%;国内粮食价格的上涨会在几年时间内持续扩大"微量允许"的使用空间,这使得政策的使用具有更大的弹性。
Chinese agriculture policy has undergone some fundamental changes in recent years.This paper analyzed the effects of recent agriculture domestic support measures and compared these findings with the actual situation in recent years.The GTAP model shows that elimination of agriculture taxes and the'four subsidies'policy on the growth of grain output and farmer's incomes have tangible effects,and the grain production increase is more partially due to significantly high prices.Due to restrictions by WTO rules,the effect of'de minimis'measure on the role of increasing grain production will not exceed 9 percent.The domestic grain price rise can continue to expand the use of space'de minimis'in the near future,which makes the use of policy more flexible.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期4-11,共8页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(编号:NCET-06-0496)的部分研究成果
