摘要
为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2008年9—11月T639模式的96小时预报进行天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本全球数值模式的产品进行了对比分析。结果表明:3种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的中期预报性能,对转折性、灾害性天气的预报有较强指示意义。综合来看,ECMWF模式对主要天气系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式预报表现稍差,稳定性不如ECMWF模式,特别是对0814号强台风黑格比的96小时预报基本失败。
In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, some synoptic verification about its medium-range forecasting for 2008 autumn is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the large- scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude area, and they all show significant indication to forecast the transition and the weather disaster. As a whole, ECMWF model is better in forecasting key weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Especially, T639 and Japan models have failed in predicting path and intensity of strong typhoon HAGUPIT, whereas ECMWF model are relatively accurate.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期112-119,共8页
Meteorological Monthly
