摘要
煤层气是我国重要的清洁能源之一，是天然气资源的潜在接替者，然而中国煤层气产业发展并不十分理想，相关方面虽有一些研究，但从系统性预测分析方面还有待进一步探讨。本文从系统学的角度出发，分析中国煤层气产业的可持续发展性以及可持续准则，并基于系统分析建立煤层气产业系统动力学模型。从产业发展能力、产业发展水平、产业发展效益和产业发展协调性四个方面结合系统的结构、形态、属性、行为标度设计，建立了中国煤层气产业可持续发展评价指标体系。基于系统动力学模拟分析结果，对中国煤层气产业发展可持续性进行定量分析并分析了其演化机制。模拟预测表明，2050年是我国煤层气产业发展的一个重要分水岭，煤层气产业发展的可持续性在2050～2075年间达到并维持最好水平。
The sustainable development and its evaluation criteria of China＇ s coal bed methane industry have been analyzed according to the system theory and methods. On this basis, a system dynamics model is programmed for simulation and analysis of the development of the CBM industry. A new index system for evaluation of the sustainable development of China＇ s CBM industry has been given which includes development ability, development level, development profitability and development consistency in corresponding to system＇s structure, modality, attribute and behavior in the system analysis. Based on the results from the system dynamic simulation, quantitative analysis of the sustainability of China CBM industry development has been made and the development mechanism of the industry has also been described. According to the simulation predictions, the year 2050 would be an important dividing ridge for the development of China CBM industry and sustainability of CBM industry development would maintain at the best levels from 2050 to 2075.
出处
《运筹与管理》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期85-88,共4页
Operations Research and Management Science
基金
中国--欧盟能源环境项目“中国煤层气生产可行性研究”(EuropeAid/120723/D/SV/CN)
关键词
系统科学
可持续发展
系统标度
动态模拟分析
煤层气产业
system science
sustainable development
system evaluation indices
dynamic simulation and analysis
coal bed methane industry
