摘要
在分析近年来新疆地质时期与历史时期气候与环境研究方面大量的文献资料与成果，并对现代器测时期的气候变化问题进行讨论的基础上，利用综合分析法构画了新疆下世纪上半叶气候与环境的可能情景，认为新疆气候与环境初建于的晚白垩世，主要形成于第三纪，至今总的干旱情势并未改变。但在漫长的地质时期中也存在过由于气候波动而出现冷暖与干湿的变化。预计下世纪上半叶新疆干旱的总格局不会改变，但比目前会略显湿润，气温将略有增加，此后会向百年尺度冷的方向发展。
Xinjiang, locating in central Asia, is well-know for its aridity. Qwing to the warm ing trend of the world, it is afraid of what there will be a warm-dry trend of climate in future that will be disadvantageous to economic and social development in Xinjiang. To know the future condition of climate and environment in Xinjiang is becoming an emer gence thing. To predict the climate trend, however, it must know the circumstance of past climate and environment. In past decades many studies in climate and environment changes since the Tertiary were done. Many data and information can be used to discriminate the future climate trend in Xinjiang. Therefore, this paper first reviews some present studies on past climate and environment and then discusses the possible trend of climate in Xin jiang.In reviewing the past climate and environment in Xinjiang, the whole accounted time is dassified into three different time scales, i. e., geological, historical and instrumental scale respectively and the characteristics of past climate and environment in Xinjiang are analysed, and then their possible trend is predicted.From a consideration of above mentioned aspects, it is concluded that the arid condi tion in Xinjiang is still remained since the early age of the Tertiary- However, climate and environment variations that were characterlzed by dry-damp and cold-warm alternation have taken place during this long time. Obviolasly periods of climate and environment vari ations such as looa and 1ka are found. By prediction, the arid condition in Xinjiang will be remained in the middle times of next century. The air temperature will slightly rise in win ter and decrease in summer. The precipitation will increase a little.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第1期1-9,共9页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金!49471018
