摘要
本文采用Spearm an相关系数的分析方法,对2005年4月1日至2007年3月31日之间50只封闭式基金净值增长的持续性进行分析。检验结果显示,中国封闭式基金的净值增长率在样本期间内表现出显著的短期持续性,特别是在预测期为未来一个月的情况下,基金净值增长率的历史数据可以对基金未来的净值表现进行有效的预测。但从中长期来看,我国封闭式基金净值增长率不具有正向持续性,甚至有可能出现反转现象。文章根据实证分析的结果对投资封闭式基金提出了相应的建议。
The article aims to extend the research on the persistence of NAV growth by Spearman correlation analysis. We examine a sample of data of 50 domestic closed - end funds that were in existence in March 2007 over a period from April I, 2005 to March 31, 2007. The empirical results suggest strong evidence of persistence of NAV growth rate in the short term, especially in 1 month prediction period. But this conclusion is not tenable in the long term, or even the return reversal may exist during the sample period. Finally, the article brings forward countermeasures and suggestions for the investment of closed - end funds on the basis of demonstrative conclusions.
出处
《吉林工程技术师范学院学报》
2009年第2期54-57,共4页
Journal of Jilin Engineering Normal University
关键词
封闭式基金
净值增长
持续性
closed - end funds
NAV growth
persistence
