摘要
针对内蒙古大兴安岭林区重特大森林火灾发生频、损失大、危害重、扑救难等特点,在分析影响其发生、蔓延与扑救的主要因子基础上,运用多元线性回归方法,构建重特大森林火灾扑救多元线性回归、预测灭火时限的经验统计模型,经回归拟合和预测检验,其平均相对误差小于8.60%.该模型可为内蒙古大兴安岭林区重特大森林火灾扑救时限预测与决策提供科学的参考依据.
The forest fires arise frequently in Daxing'anling Mountains Forest Region in Inner Mongolia and bring about great loss and gravely damage with difficult suppression.Based on the analysis of the key factors affecting the forest fire arising,spreading and suppressing,and using multi-linear regression analysis method,the authors built an empirical statistics model of gravely extra large forest fire suppression.The model could make multiple linear regression,and with anticipation of time limitation for fire suppression.Through fitting test,the average relative error was less than 8.60%.Results show that the model can provide references for forecasting and making decision on relative issues of suppressing gravely extra large forest fires in this region.
出处
《北京林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第S2期128-131,共4页
Journal of Beijing Forestry University
基金
农业科技成果转化资金项目(05EFN217100428)
关键词
时限预测
多元线性回归
模型构建
重特大森林火灾扑救
大兴安岭林区
anticipation of time limitation,multiple-linear regression,building model,gravely extra large forest fire suppression,Daxing'anling Mountains Forest Region
