摘要
分析了采用收益现值法评估收费公路权益转让价格时,影响评估结果精确度的主要因素净现金流量以及灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的小样本、贫信息特点。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在收费公路权益转让价格评估的实证分析,证明灰色预测结果具有较高的预测精度和可信度,是收费公路权益转让价格评估过程中较为理想的预测方法。
When the present earning value method is used to analyze the right of price transference of toll road, it is found that the net cash flow and grey prediction often affect the accuracy of evaluation results and they are of small samples and lack information. Empirical analysis through grey prediction GM （ 1,1 ） shows that the GM （ 1,1 ） model used in the present earning value method for evaluating the price transference is quite accurate and it is also proved that the GM （ 1,1 ） model is more suitable for predicting the price transference of toll road management right than the traditional statistical models.
出处
《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》
2009年第1期46-49,共4页
Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)
基金
陕西省科技厅基金项目(2008KR108)
关键词
灰色预测模型
收费公路权益
转让价格
收益现值法
model of grey prediction
toll road management right
price transference
present earning value method
