摘要
我国大豆产量低,生产能力有限,但随着畜牧业和饲料业的发展,大豆已成为我国农产品中与国际市场联系最紧密的品种。影响大豆市场变化的因素很多,其中国内大豆及其制品的供求是最关键的因素,同时国际大豆及其制品、国际其他植物油品种、国际国内其他农产品等的供求与市场变化,饲料及畜产品市场,国际能源价格(如石油价格)的变化等都对国内大豆市场产生不同程度的影响。大豆、豆粕和豆油市场价格是反映大豆市场变化的表征指标;大豆压榨效益是反映大豆压榨行业及大豆市场运行状态的评价指标。论文建立了大豆制品与大豆压榨效益变化的动态预测模型,并利用近6年来的实际变化数据,验证了预测模型的合理性;利用该模拟模型可以对后期大豆及其市场的变化进行预警分析。
At present, soybean has become one of the important food and important protein resources for stoekbreeding development in the world. The acreage of soybean in China only covers 9% or so in all foodstuff crops acreage, and the output just accounts for about 3.5% in total foodstuff yields. Soybean belongs to minority crop breed in China. Chinese soybean production capacity is limited, but with the rise of breeding quantity as well as the development of scaled-up breed- ing pattern in stockbreeding industry, feed industry grows rapidly and the soy-meal demand increases, which result in soybean demand going up year by year. The huge supply-demand gap can only be solved by import, so soybean has become the breed which owns the closest linkage with international market among China＇ s farm produce. There are many factors influencing the change of soybean market, in which the supply and demand of domestic soy complex is the most crucial one. At the same time, the supply-demand and market changes of other vegetable oils and other farm produce, feed and stockbreeding markets as well as the changes of international energy sources prices （e. g. crude oil price） all influence domestic soybean market to different degrees. The prices of soybean, soy-meal and soy-oil are the token indexes reflecting the change of soybean market, and the crush benefit is the evaluation index reflecting the operation situation of soybean crush industry and soybean market. Based on the price fluctuation in international soybean market, considering the time delay of interaction between intemational and domestic markets, as well as the supply-demand characters of domestic soy complex markets, this paper establishes the dynamic forecast model of soy complex and soybean crush benefit. Based on the contract result between the model forecast data and the actual changing data of soy complex market in recent six years, the rationality of the forecast model has been proved. This forecast model can be used to pre-warning and analyzing the future soy co
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期423-430,共8页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程领域前沿项目"中国可持续发展的资源基础研究"
关键词
大豆市场
供求平衡表
指标体系
预警分析
模拟
soybean market
supply-demand balance sheet
index system
pre-warning analysis
simulation
