摘要
中国各个地区经济发展对电力消费需求量大且存在地域差异,不同区域间的电力需求与经济增长之间的关系十分复杂,并非能由常系数的普通最小二乘回归分析所解释。采用电力消费模型,利用局域空间计量经济学模型方法———空间变系数的地理加权回归模型,对中国省域电力消费与经济增长之间的关系进行了局域空间计量经济分析。结果发现,中国大陆30个省域的电力消费和经济增长之间表现为一种非均衡的联动关系和局域性特征,制定差异化的区域电力消费调控政策是非常必要的。
There is regional difference either in large electricity consumption demand or in regional economic development. The relationship between electricity demand and economic development is much complicated, and can not be explained by ordinary least squares （OLS） estimation with constant coefficients. Using geographical weighed regression （GWR） model of spatial varying-coefficient regression models （SVCRM） of spatial econometrics, this paper analyses the locally relationship between electricity consumption and economic development of 30 Chinese provinces. The results show that 1 ） the spatial factor influences the relationship between regional electricity consumption and economic growth, and the geographical weighed regression （GWR） model of spatial varying-coefficient regression models （SVCRM）, taking the spatial effect into account, is a better model than OLS estimation; 2） there is a spatially associated relationship between the electricity consumption and economic growth and the spatial pattern of 30 Chinese provinces displays a local characteristics; 3 ） the electricity prices of most provinces have the unbalanced and negative impact on the regional electricity consumption; 4） the unbalanced industrial structure and population growth of most provinces have a positive impact on the regional electricity consumption; and 5） it is necessary to establish a regulative and control policy of electricity consumption diversity such as promoting the regional economic growth quality, reforming the electricity prices, persisting in the family control policy, and regulating and optimizing the industrial structure to realize the balance development of saving energy, lowering energy consumption and reducing pollutants discharge.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第1期30-35,共6页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金重大国际(地区)合作研究项目"能源利用CO2减排技术路线评价模型与战略研究"(50520140517)资助
关键词
电力消费
经济增长
地理加权回归模型
局域空间计量经济分析
electricity consumption
economic growth
geographical weighed regression （GWR）
local spatial econometric analysis
