摘要
为全面、有效地分析众多指标因子对客运需求的影响并揭示它们之间的联系,将公路客运影响因子划分为公路客运经济因子和公路客运弹性因子两种,给出了公路客运弹性系数的因子分析法,并对江西省1980年—2005年公路客运指标采用因子分析法进行计算,通过经济因子和弹性因子的关系来获取该省公路客运的弹性系数。结果表明采用因子分析法进行公路客运需求分析,既能大大减少参与数据建模的变量个数,有效降低变量维数、同时也不会造成信息的大量丢失;各年客运弹性系数总体变化不大,能够较好地反映公路客运与社会经济发展的关系,但利用几何平均法得到的运输弹性系数的发展趋势比较平缓,其波动范围也小于利用算术平均法得到的弹性系数。
In order to analyze the effect so many factors have on highway passenger demand and reveal the relationships between them roundly and effectively, the proposal that highway passenger factors are divided into economy factors and elastic factors and the key factor analysis method about elastic coefficients of highway passenger transportation is given. Using key factor analysis method, the highway passenger indexes from 1980 to 2005 of Jiangxi province are computed and the elastic coefficients of highway passenger transportation are got by analyzing the relationship between economy factors and elastic factors. The result shows that key factor analysis method is useful to analyze the highway passenger demand because it can reduce the amount of variables for models and cannot result in the loss of much information, and then it shows that all ＋the elastic coefficients change a little, which can reflect the relationship between highway passenger transportation and social economy. And the development trend of elastic coefficients got from geometric average method changes more gently and the fluctuation range is smaller than that got from arithmetical average method.
出处
《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2009年第1期116-120,共5页
Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)
基金
重庆市科委软科学项目(CSCT2007CE9009)
重庆市教委基础研究项目(KJ080421)
关键词
交通运输
公路旅客运输
弹性系数
因子分析
弹性因子
经济因子
transportation
highway passenger transportation
elastic coefficients
key factor analysis
elastic factor
economy factor
