摘要
世界石油和天然气需求增长的压力将长期存在,而在油气供应来源、开采成本和消费价格等方面都存在极大的不确定性。当前石油供应的最紧迫风险并不是全球石油资源的紧缺,而是在需要投资的地方缺乏应有的投资。尽管上游油气行业的名义投资额一直在快速增长,但其中很多是为了对付成本上升和现有油田加速减产而耗费的。此外,大多数投资都用在高成本储量的勘探和开发上,因为很多重要的油气资源国都日益依赖国家石油公司,国际石油公司已经很难获得便宜的油气资源。世界多数地区的石油资源都在减少,而且所有地区的产量都在加速下降,因此要想以合理的价格满足世界需求,关键在于能否增加勘探开发成本低的国家的石油产量。无论是资源潜力还是需求压力,天然气的情形都要好于石油,但类似的矛盾也不同程度地存在。
According to World Energy Outlook 2008 released by International Energy Agency, pressure on growing demand for oil and natural gas around the world will persist for a long period but uncertainties remain for energy source, production cost and consumer prices. At present, the imminent risk on oil supply is not shortage in energy resources but insufficient investment in much needed sectors. In spite of rapid growth in nominal investment in upstream oil and gas industries, most of the investment is used to cope with rising cost and production reduction. In addition, some other funds have been invested in exploration and development of new oil fields. As many oil exporting countries become increasingly dependent on national oil companies, it’ s no longer expectable for international oil companies to get cheap energy resources. Since most regions in the world have been experiencing depleting oil resources and output accelerates decreasing, the best solution is to boost output in oil fields where exploration is less costly so that oil demand can be met at a reasonable price. Natural gas boasts brighter prospect than that of oil in terms of both potential reserve and demand pressure, but similar conflicts remain to some extent.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2008年第12期35-39,共5页
International Petroleum Economics
