摘要
在德尔菲调查法基础上,研究了专家评价意见的集成问题。通过构造专家意见的可靠度函数和专家意见集成的可信度,以专家一次性原始意见为基础,在保留专家意见独立性前提下利用专家意见集成的优化搜索模型,获得了专家意见集成的最佳协调方案。该模型有效避免了传统专家研讨过程中由于组织不当而造成的群体思维、趋同行为、风险转移等促使研讨结果偏离事实的现象的发生,并通过实际应用显示该模型具有良好的使用效果和广泛的适应性。
In this paper, the problem of experts＇ minds integration is discussed based on Delphi method. The creditability function and reliability function of experts＇ minds integration are constructed, and by using optimization searching model we can get optimization result of experts＇ minds integration based on the original opinions and keeping the independence of experts＇ minds. There are many merits in this model, especially it can avoid some phenomena which may make decision-making results deviate from the fact happening, such as group-thinking, homology trending, venture transferring and so on. In the actual application, this model shows nice effect and great adaptability.
出处
《指挥控制与仿真》
2009年第1期9-12,共4页
Command Control & Simulation
关键词
综合集成
研讨厅
专家意见集成
一致性
meta synthesis
hall for workshop
experts＇ minds integration
consensus
