摘要
通过对泉州市泉港区原始资料的分析,确定采用区域负荷密度指标法进行远期年预测,及多种数学模型外推进行中间年预测的预测方案。利用同类型地区同类型负荷的负荷密度相似原理,得到了远期年泉港区各类性质用地的负荷密度指标。根据确定的方案,预测了泉港区总电量、总负荷以及分区和分类负荷。经过对预测结果的校核,确定结果符合泉港区的经济发展趋势,是有效的。
Through the analysis on primary data in Quangang district, Quanzhou City, this paper decides to adopt regional load density index method to conduct long-term annual prediction, and to conduct middle-term annual prediction with many mathematics models. Based on the principle that the load densities of the same load type in the same type of region are similar, this paper gets the load density index of all functional types of land in Quangang district in far future years. According to confirmed solution, this paper predicts the total electric volume and load, regional electric loads and different type electric loads. The verification on the prediction result proves it comply with local economy development trend. The fact means it valid.
出处
《供用电》
2008年第6期20-23,共4页
Distribution & Utilization
关键词
负荷预测
城市电网
负荷密度
实践
load prediction
urban network
load density
practice
