摘要
本文是继2006年研究项目"上海市基础房价走势"后的又一后续课题.其宗旨是研究、预测2007年上海市住宅需求量.基于易居(中国)房地产研究院所提供的数据,本文在数据相关性分析基础上,建立了二个预测模型,每个模型分别用2种方法得出结果,以便验证并消除系统误差.模型一:回归模型.分别利用主成分分析基础上的回归以及逐步回归法.模型二:核密度函数模型.通过核估计以及核回归,进行预测.本文模型具有一定的可操作性,使用简便.所得结果得到有关专家的论证和确认.
As a follow-up subject of Shanghai Real Estate Price Prediction Research in 2006,we aim to analyze and predict the consumption capability of the Real Estate in 2007. Based on the data offered by E-house China R＆D Institute, we established two kinds of predict models after the correlation analysis. To eliminate the system error of the model, two methods were used in each model to predict the results. Model one is a regression model, separately using the principal components analysis method and stepwise regression method. And the other is kernel density function model,the usage of kernel estimation method and kernel regression is efficiently in the predict work. These easy-to-use models can be applied to different practical situation;also the results can be accurately indicator of the market trend.
出处
《应用数学与计算数学学报》
2008年第2期49-56,共8页
Communication on Applied Mathematics and Computation
基金
易居(中国)房地产研究院资助项目
