摘要
本文通过对风险概念的进一步分析，说明了风险权衡在项目风险分析中的重要作用。并且阐述了多阶段项目风险权衡的两个基本目的，即评估各阶段风险权衡策略的综合效果，以及根据预期风险控制要求，产生各阶段的风险权衡策略。同时，通过给出一些基本假设，引出了一个多阶段项目的风险权衡模型，并且给出了几种简单实用的求解方法：搜索法和启发式法等。最后，就本文所讨论的方法进行了简单的分析。
Through a further analysis on concept of risk,an important effect of risk analysis of projects has been illustrated,and two basic purposes of risk trade off on multiple phase projects have been explained in this paper.Meantime,through some basic suppositions provided,a model of risk trade off on multiple phase projects has been introduced,and several simple and practical algorithms on the model have also been proposed.Finally,the paper has analysed the method discussed above. [WT5”HZ〗
出处
《系统工程与电子技术》
EI
CSCD
1998年第1期41-43,51,共4页
Systems Engineering and Electronics
关键词
风险管理
经济模型
项目
评价
Mutiple phase,Risk trade off,Dispersal,Search.
