摘要
文章在分析长江三角洲地区土地利用现状和动态变化规律的基础上,分析耕地、建设用地与经济发展的相关性和土地利用变化的趋势预测,确定未来合理的经济增长率。结果表明,耕地、建设用地与经济发展间呈显著相关性;耕地流失和建设用地扩张变化与GDP变化率之间分别呈现"S"型和"倒U"型关系,模型分析揭示了该地区经济的发展对土地的依赖性正在减弱,而耕地流失仍处于高速流失时期。为了减少土地压力,实现土地资源的可持续利用,经济增长率控制在12%以内较合适。
Based on analyzed land use status and dynamic change, the correlation between cultivated land, building land and economic development were analyzed, tendency forecast of land use change was analyzed and the rational increase rate of GDP was determined. The results show that there were significant correlation between cultivated land, building land and economic. The curve between cultivated land and GDP was ＂S＂ curve, and the curve between building land and GDP was the Conversc-U curve. The change of building land is undergoing the process from steep increase to gently increase, and the change of cultivated land is undergoing the height periods of decrease. To mitigate the press of economic growth on arable land and achieve the sustainable utilization of land resources, the increase rate of GDP should be less than 12%.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第6期982-985,994,共5页
Economic Geography
基金
国家发展和改革委员会(长江三角洲地区区域规划土地利用专题)资助
