摘要
岩爆是深埋隧洞开挖中主要工程问题之一,如何对其进行准确预测也是岩石工程的重点研究课题。针对深埋隧洞围岩发生岩爆的随机性和模糊性,将岩爆视为一种风险,引入以可靠度为基础的模糊概率风险理论,建立了一个新的岩爆风险预测模型——模糊概率风险分析模型,该方法克服传统判别方法的不足,既能预测岩爆的发生,又能计算各级岩爆发生概率。结合工程常用的Russenes岩爆判别法,推导出模型的概率密度函数和隶属函数形式。应用该方法对南水北调西线工程泥曲-杜柯河段隧洞部分洞段进行岩爆风险评估,并与常规岩爆判别法对比。
Rockburst is one of the most important problem during the excavation of deep-buried tunnels. How to predict rockburst accurately is one of the major subjects in geoteehnical engineering. With the randomness and implicit vagueness of rockburst in deep-buried tunnels, rockburst can be considered as a risk. Fuzzy probability risk theory based on reliability is introduced to evaluate rockburst risk, a new rockburst risk prediction model of fuzzy probability risk analysis is established. This method overcomes the disadvantages of traditional methods, can predict both the rockburst and its probablity. On the basis of Russenes method, the probability density function and membership function are deduced. The proposed method was applied to the rockburst risk of a typical tunnel in western route of the South-North Water Transfer Project, the obtained results are compared with traditional methods. Because of its considering of the uncertainties, it provide a new way for the prediction of rockburst.
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第6期82-85,共4页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划(No.2006BAB04A06)资助项目
关键词
岩爆
深埋隧洞
风险分析
模糊概率
隶属函数
rockburst
deep-buried tunnels
risk analysis
fuzzy probability risk analysis
membership function
