摘要
福建省气象灾害种类繁多,但对农业生产的影响程度并不相同,只有通过权重的科学确定才能正确评价农业气象综合灾情。如何确定灾害权重,是进行农业气象灾害综合评价的核心问题。将主、客观赋权方法(层次分析法、灰色关联分析和熵权法)应用于福建农业气象灾害综合评价中权重的确定,探讨和比较它们在计算气象灾害权重方面的适用性,并在此基础上提出同时体现主观和客观信息的组合赋权法,得到福建农业气象灾害的组合权重,由大到小依次为低温冻害、旱灾、洪涝、风雹。结果表明,由组合赋权法计算的各灾害指标组合权重相比任何一种主、客观方法都更为合理和可靠。
There are too many meteorological disasters in Fujian Province, to agriculture, only through figuring the weight scientifically can to assess but the affected level are not same synthesis agro-meteorological disaster. How to confirm the weight of disasters is the main question issue in the ago-meteorological disaster integrative assess. The article introduce the traditional methods of the subjective and objective weighting method to calculate the main disasters weight including AHP grey relational analysis and entropy weight method, comparing their reasonability, and a new combination weighting approach is further put forward which not only embodies the statistical information of sample involved, but also exploits the experience of experts. At last, the combinational weight of agro-meteorological disasters was got. The result showed that the weight calculated by combination weighting approach was more rational and reliable than both of the subjective weighting method and objective weighting method.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2008年第11期448-452,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
福建省自然科学基金项目(W0750001)
福建省科技厅重点项目(2006Y008)。
关键词
层次分析法
灰色关联分析
熵权法
农业气象灾害
组合权重
福建
AHP, grey relational analysis, entropy weight method, agro-meteorological disasters, combinational weight, Fujian Province
