摘要
研究了故障终止时,齐次Poisson过程未来故障数的预测问题,根据已出现的故障数和终止时间,给出了未来故障数的经典(Frequentist)点估计、经典精确预测区间、正态近似预测区间、Bayesian精确预测区间、极大后验点估计、Fiducial预测区间。
The prediction of homogenous Poisson process future failure number stopped by failure is studied. According to the failure number and the stop time, the Frequentist point prediction, accuracy Frequentist prediction interval, accuracy Bayesian prediction interval, point prediction with maximum posterior-distribution and Fiducial prediction interval of the future failure number are presented.
出处
《强度与环境》
2008年第5期49-54,共6页
Structure & Environment Engineering
