摘要
大桥水库是安宁河流域的龙头水库,鉴于该水利工程自建成八年多时间以来尚未系统地开展过水库调度研究,因此,通过对入库径流的预测并进行水库电站运行优化调度,必将有利于水资源的合理利用及工程的科学管理,并使其发挥出更好的社会效益和经济效益。在深入分析历史径流资料的基础上,采用自回归模型、最近邻抽样回归模型和人工神经网络模型对大桥水库入库径流进行了预测,在此基础上,尝试了运用动态规划法对大桥水库中长期的发电运行进行优化调度,其结果表明:此次研究在提高大桥水库发电效益和综合利用等方面具有重要的理论与实践参考价值。
Daqiao reservoir is the leading reservoir in the Anning River basin, but systematical study on reservoir optimal operation has not been developed after it was completed. Research on runoff forecasting and optimal operation of Daqiao power station will lead to proper use of water resources and scientific management,resulting in better social and economic benefits. In this paper, a number of models,including the self-regression model, the nearest neighbor sampling regression model and ANN model, are used to forecast the inflow runoff based on in-depth analysis on historical runoff data. Furthermore,mid-long term optimal operation of hydropower station is undertaken with the DP algorithm method. The results show that this study will benefit Daqiao reservoir project in aspects of power generation and multipurpose use,which will bring us much worth not only in theory but also in practice.
出处
《四川水力发电》
2008年第5期77-80,85,共5页
Sichuan Hydropower
关键词
径流预测
最近邻抽样回归模型
人工神经网络模型
优化调度
动态规划
大桥水库
runoff forecasting
the nearest neighbor sampling regression model
the ANN model
optimal operation
the DP algorithm
Daqiao reservoir
