摘要
运用动态计量经济学的单位根检验模型、协整分析模型、因果关系检验模型,以桂林市为例,对国际旅游业和地方经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:国际旅游业的发展与桂林经济增长存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系,但是其对桂林经济增长促进作用还不够;在较长的滞后期内国际旅游业是桂林市经济增长G ranger意义上的单向原因,两者之间没有形成一种协调互动反馈机制。
This paper uses unit root test model, co-integration test model and Granger Causal test model, to analyze the relation between international tourism and economic growth of Guilin. And the paper draws a conclusion that there is dymanie relation between international tourism and economical increasing of Guilin, but international tourism hasn＇t promoted economic growth of Guilin enough. International tourism is the Granger cause of economical increasing of Guilin in the longer lag length, but they don＇t form harmonious feed-back mechanism.
出处
《旅游论坛》
CSSCI
2008年第4期106-109,共4页
Tourism Forum
关键词
国际旅游业
地方经济增长
协整检验
GRANGER因果关系检验
动态关联机制
international tourism
growth of regional economy
the test of co-integration
the test of Granger Causal
dynamic relation mechanism
