摘要
社会总用电量预报是电力系统的重要工作之一,社会总用电量为非线性时间序列.针对电力系统负荷的复杂性及非线性,提出了结合混沌理论的思想,充分利用数据信息,在重构电力负荷相空间的基础上运用混沌全域法对负荷进行预测,并与最小二乘法预测模型预测结果进行比较,结果显示混沌全域法预测结果明显优于最小二乘法预测模型,预测精度也满足工程应用.
Forecasting about national electric load is an important task in the electric system. The annual electric load is a nonlinear time series in the paper. In the light of complexity and non-linearity of load in power system, load forecasting is conducted after reconstruction phase space based on chaos theory concept and by making full use of data and information. Compared with least squares forecast model, chaos global forecast has a more precise result, which can also satisfy engineering application.
出处
《广东教育学院学报》
2008年第5期60-63,共4页
Journal of Guangdong Education Institute
基金
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(05006518)
