摘要
通过对北京郊区四路信号控制交叉口进行实地调查,在获取事故数据及道路几何要素、环境要素、交通流要素等大量数据的基础上,利用相关性分析寻找出与交通事故相关性显著的影响因素,并采用AIC原则分析法确定模型形式,分别建立了四路信号控制交叉口死亡人数、受伤人数、事故次数预测模型。模型的建立有助于对交叉口进行安全分析诊断及预测交叉口的交通事故发生规律。
Through the investigation of four-legs signalized intersections in Beijing suburban areas,and on the basis of collecting large amount of data such as accidents, road geometry factors,environment factors and traffic volume factors,this paper establishs models to predict fatalities,injuries and the amount of accidents of four- legs signalized intersections respectively. It adopts correlation analysis method to seek out the notable influencing factors,and AIC principle analysis method to confirm the form of models.The setting-up of models is helpful to perform accident diagnosis and forecast the occurrence rule of traffic accidents of intersections.
出处
《道路交通与安全》
2008年第3期44-46,共3页
Road Traffic & Safety
关键词
四路信号控制交叉口
相关性分析
交通事故预测模型
four-legs signalized intersection, correlation analysis method
crash prediction model
