摘要
基于复杂网络理论,研究了禽流感病毒的传播机制。根据实证数据分析,建立了一个禽流感病毒传播的小世界网络模型。通过对病毒传播中个体的接触程度、传染概率、潜伏期等因素研究,分析了现在对禽流感病毒预防措施的有效性。最后,通过对世界卫生组织公布的各地禽流感病毒爆发的数据进行统计,说明了用小世界网络模型模拟禽流感病毒传播的可行性。
Based on the dynamics of complex network, the diffusion mechanism of the avian influenza was studied. By analyzing the fact data of the avian influenza, a small-world network model on the viruses epidemics was built. It is proved that the propositions for the avian flu disease control and prevention are valid by analyzing the epidemics of bird flu, infection probability and latent period of the viruses. Finally, from the study on the fact data promulgated at web state of the world health organization, it is showed that the small-world model to simulate the epidemics of avian influenza is feasibility.
出处
《系统仿真学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第18期5001-5005,共5页
Journal of System Simulation
基金
国家自然科学基金(60574007)
国家博士后科研基金(20060390972)
山东省教育厅科研基金(J06G03)
关键词
复杂网络
病毒传播
禽流感
预防和控制
complex networks
virus epidemics
avian influenza
prevention and control
