摘要
目的预测广东全省妇幼保健院2008年的工作量,为决策者制定促进妇幼卫生事业健康发展的政策与方法提供强有力的理论依据。方法取最小二乘法和指数平滑法进行比较,最小二乘法的残差较小,故采用最小二乘法来进行预测。结果广东全省妇幼保健院2008年的工作量预测值分别为门诊诊疗人次人、出院人次人。结论广东全省妇幼保健院工作量快速增长,政府与相关的卫生管理部门应给予更多的支持,提高妇幼保健工作水平和质量,促进妇幼保健卫生事业健康发展。
Objective Forecast the workload （ total of outpatients and inpatients） in women and children health care institute of Guangdong province in 2008 to provide reference for decision making. Methods The least squares method is chosen because of its less residual between least squares method and exponential smoothing. Resuits The forecast total of outpatients in 2008 is 21591309 and the total of inpatients is 584201. Conclusion The total of outpatients and inpatients increase rapidly, which needs more support from government and the pertinent management departments to improve their cure and service quality and promote the development of women and children health care.
出处
《现代医院》
2008年第10期141-142,共2页
Modern Hospitals
关键词
工作量
最小二乘法
指数平滑法
预测
Workload
Least squares method
Exponential smoothing
Forecast
