摘要
在武器装备作战效能仿真评估中,常常面临着仿真数据源的可信度难以测度与验证的问题.而采集的仿真参数是作战效能评估指标体系的体现,可按照仿真评估指标体系来测度仿真数据源的综合可信度.考虑到仿真评估指标体系的底层指标的数据相对详细且容易理解,利用多位专家对末级指标仿真数据的可信度作出评定,并把评定完的末级指标的信度融合成整体仿真数据的综合信度.构建基于证据理论的融合方法来汇集这些评估未级指标的可信度,再经过层层推理聚合,最后获取体现整个仿真系统数据源的最终信度.以某陆军装甲坦克分队作战效能仿真评估为例,对仿真数据源的可信度分析,运用该方法,得到的综合信度值不但合理,还可为基于仿真的评估提供信度支持.
It is a difficult problem for the simulation and evaluation of the weapon equipment operational effectiveness to deal with credibility measurement and verification of the data from simulation. The simu- lation data and parameters are the characters of the evaluation indexes system of operational effective- ness, so that they can be used to measure the apprehensive credibility of simulation data. Considering the end index data of the evaluation and simulation indexes system that have detail and understandable information, many experts are invited to evaluate the credibility of the end index of simulation data. Then the credibility of each end index simulation data are required to combine and fuse into whole simulation data credibility. A method based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is constructed to fuse above credi- bility of each end index simulation data, by means of reasoning and fusion, and finally the apprehensive credibility of whole simulation data is obtained. An example for a tank unit military mission of armored e- quipments is simulated, and the simulation data source credibility is analyzed by means of above method. The evaluation results demonstrate that the apprehensive credibility of simulation data not only is reasona- ble but also provides the evaluation based on simulation with a support.
出处
《系统工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第4期479-487,共9页
Journal of Systems Engineering
基金
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20070421016)
关键词
仿真数据可信度
作战效能
证据理论
专家评定
装甲兵装备
credibility of simulation data
operational effectiveness
evidence theory
expert evaluation
armored equipment
