摘要
通过确定并计算土壤有效系数和社会有效系数,得到耕地社会生产潜力,运用"机制法"理论计算重庆地区耕地资源生产潜力。通过预测重庆地区未来人口数量变化趋势、人均粮食需求量、粮经比、复种指数和耕地面积,探讨重庆地区耕地人口承载力问题。研究结果表明:粮食单产虽然增产潜力比较大,但总产增产潜力不大。耕地资源短缺与锐减及其导致的粮食资源不足问题会越来越严重。
Priority to ascertains and calculates effective modulus of soil and effective modulus of society, and gain society productive potential of cultivated land. productive latent capacity of Cultivated land Resource have been calculated in chongqing region according to ,mechanism principle. On the basis of that the grain incraseed potential is being calculated, and forecast population quantity in furore, the amounts of grain needed per person, multiple cropping index and cultivated area,discussing capacity of future population, result indicated:the grain potential of increasing production per unit area is comparatively big in Chongqing region, but total product of potential is not big, resource of cultivated land is shortage and subtraction ,and resources of grain will be more and more inadequate.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第5期584-587,共4页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家科技支撑计划"重庆地区喀斯特山地退化生态系统综合整治技术与模式"(2006BAC01A16)
关键词
重庆地区
耕地生产潜力
人口承载力
Chongqing Region
productive latent capacity of cultivated land
population capacity