摘要
利用2006年采自新疆伊犁乌孙山北坡3个采点的树轮样本，建立了树轮宽度年表，采用树轮图像分析法进一步建立了3种宽度年表和5种灰度年表。相关分析发现，在所有参数年表中乌孙山北坡3个树轮标准化全轮灰度年表序列与该地区4—5月平均最低气温显著相关，相关系数最大可达-0．552。经多方面检验可知，利用树轮标准化全轮灰度年表重建该地区过去324a的4—5月最低气温是可信的。通过对重建最低气温序列进行功率谱分析发现乌孙山北坡4—5月最低气温具有31a、36a和48a的变化准周期；小波分析证实，31～32a的低频变化周期最为显著，1800年以前，震荡随时间推移逐渐减弱，周期逐渐缩短，19世纪后期震荡加强，进入20世纪，震荡减弱，逐渐趋于稳定。4—5月平均最低气温经历了11高11低的变化阶段。
The tree-ring samples of Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey collected from three sites in northern slope of Wusun Mountains in North Xinjiang in 2006, are used to developed tree-ring width chronologies by using standard dendrochronological method. Further, three kinds of width chronologies and five kinds of gray chronologies are established by using image analysis of tree-ring. Single correlation calculation indica- ted that the three tree-ring standardization gray chronologies in northern slope of Wusun Mountains are all significantly related with the mean minimum temperature of April to May in this area, whose maximum cor- relation coefficient is --0. 552. A 324 years＂ mean minimum temperature series is well reconstructed by means of the tree-ring mean gray chronology series and its explain variance was 40.5 %. Many tests prove that the reconstruction is credible. Power spectrum analysis on the reconstructed series shows that the A- pril-May mean minimum temperature series in northern slope of Wusun Mountains has 32-year, 36-year and 48-year quasi-periodic changes. Wavelet analysis has confirmed the obvious low-frequency change period of 31-year or 32-year cycle. Before 1800, the change extent of April-May mean minimum temperature weak- ened gradually and the period shortened with time elapse; from then on the temperature vibration strength- ened; entering the 20~ Century, the temperature vibration returned weak and tended to be stable. The re- constructed temperature series has experienced 11 low and 11 high change stages over the 324 years.
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第5期848-854,共7页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
科技基础性工作专项(2007FY220200)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706008)
中国气象局重点实验室开放研究项目"新疆天山北坡树木年轮气候研究"科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项(2005DIB6J113)
国家自然科学基金项目(40475041)共同资助
关键词
乌孙山北坡
树木年轮
平均最低气温
小波分析
northern slope of Wusun Mountains in North Xinjiang
tree ring
mean minimum temperature
wavelet analysis
