摘要
物流业的发展和地区经济的发展之间存在着相互促进的关系。文章选取西部地区GDP及货运周转量指标,通过对其建立计量模型展开系统的研究,揭示了区域物流业与区域经济之间的内在经济关系,即它们之间是一种长期均衡的关系(协整分析);并在此基础上计算货运周转量单位增长所带来的区域GDP的增长的弹性值;最后,建立ARIMA模型对2007～2010年中国西部地区货运周转量进行预测。
The logistics development and the local economy＇s development has the relations which promotes mutually. This paper selects western area GDP and the freight Ton-kilometers, through researching its establishment econometrics model, has promulgated between the region logistics and the regional economies internal economy relations, namely between them is one kind of long-term balanced relations, and calculates the region GDP growth elastic value which the freight transportation, volume of the circular flow unit grows brings; Finally, establishes the ARIMA model to carry on the forecast to 2007-2010 year China western area freight transportation volume of the circular flow.
出处
《物流科技》
2008年第9期79-82,共4页
Logistics Sci-Tech
关键词
货运周转量
整分析
ARIMA模型
freight ton-kilometers
cointegration analysis
ARIMA model
