摘要
采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998—2006年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合北京市的实际情况进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将北京市各类场所划分为4类敏感区并与5类涉核恐怖事件结合起来,得到北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险构成图。通过风险分析,笔者认为北京市发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为核研究机构,最容易发生的核与辐射恐怖事件类型为涉及放射源的恐怖事件,结合分析结果对从阻止、探测、响应3个层次上提出了奥运核安保工作的反核恐工作建议。
The risk of nuclear and radiation terrorism in Beijing was analyzed according to the thread of risk classification-factor analysis-risk ranking. Firstly, based on the terror incidents at home and abroad from 1998 - 2006, 6 categories of terror incidents were classified from the view of materials and locations. Then, according to the actuality in Beijing, all the arenas were divided into 4 kinds of sensitive locations and related to 5 categories of terror incidents. Thus, a terror-risk diagram of Beijing was obtained. It was considered that the most dangerous location in Beijing for the nuclear terrorism was nuclear research insti- tutes, and the most probable terror incident to occur was the one related to radiation source. Finally, suggestions about anti-nuclear terrorism in 2008 Olympic games were put forward from prevention, monitoring and response.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2008年第6期127-133,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
核与辐射
恐怖事件
风险分类
风险分析
风险排序
奥运会
核安保
nuclear and radiation
terrorism
risk analysis
risk category
risk sorting
Olympic games
safeguarding for nuclear safety
