摘要
滑坡形成机制复杂其变形受多种因素影响,具有相当的模糊性和灰色不确定性,因而利用灰色预测模型对滑坡进行预测将是一条有效的途径.在介绍了灰色预测的基本原理及其精度检验方法后,针对传统灰色GM(1,l)模型中背景值的取法,提出了一种自动寻优定权的改进措施,通过实例对比分析,表明其预测精度将得到有效提高.
The controlling and influential elements of landslide are always changeable, so they tend to be quite fuzzy and gray uncertain. Therefore, it is a very effective method to utilize grey model to predict landslides. After the introduction of the basic principle of gray prediction and methods to assess its accuracy, aiming at the acquisition of background value in traditional GM （ 1,1 ） model, the paper proposes an approach of automatic optimizing improvement. Results of comparison and analysis prove that accuracy of the prediction will be improved effectively.
出处
《华东交通大学学报》
2008年第4期11-14,共4页
Journal of East China Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(E080603)
关键词
滑坡
灰色预测
GM(1
1)模型
背景值
landslide
grey prediction
GM （ 1,1 ） model
background value
