摘要
本文介绍了中澳双边贸易发展情况,并以资本积累理论为基础,采取全球贸易分析预测模型(GTAP)动态化方法,在考虑中澳两国中长期内贸易、投资和收入内在联结机制的基础上,模拟了资本内生化条件下中国与澳大利亚建立自由贸易区对世界经济的动态影响。结果显示,中澳建立自贸区从长期看将更有利于双方贸易的发展、经济的增长和福利水平的提高,但是对不同行业和地区的影响是有差别的,并据此提出了一些政策建议。
This paper introduces the trade situation of China and Australia, simulate and compare the long-run and short-run economic effect of the possible construction of FTA between China and Australia on world economy. The approach explored here adopts the capital accumulation mech- anism in GTAP Model. The result shows that the above FTA will benefit the improvement of trade, economic growth and welfare, while the impacts distribute differently among the industries, countries and regions. Thereby, some policy implications are discussed.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第8期62-66,共5页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家自然科学基金"基于国际贸易技术溢出的我国双边FTA动态优化研究"(项目号:70703004)
