摘要
本文运用1978-2006年的数据，对云南产业结构调整与经济增长的关系进行Granger因果检验，并运用多元回归和协整检验分析了云南三次产业及其分行业对经济增长的贡献程度。研究结果表明，产业结构调整是促进云南经济增长的原因，而经济增长不是产业结构调整的原因；三次产业中的第一、第三产业能够促进云南经济的良性增长；三次产业分行业中的牧业、批发和零售贸易、餐饮业、其他服务业、工业、农业和交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业有效地拉动了云南经济增长。
The paper uses Granger causality test to examine the relation of industrial structure adjustment and economy growth over the period 1978-2006 ,and applies multiple regression and cointegrating test to analyze the contribution of the size of value-- added of the compositions by sector of three strata of industry to economy growth in Yunnan Province. The findings suggest that, the adjustment of industrial structure Granger causes the economy growth in Yunnan,but not opposite. We also find that the prima- ry industry and tertiary industry bring the well growth of Yunnan＇s economy. Of the three strata of industry, animal husbandry, wholesale and retail trades and catering services, other services, industry, agriculture and transportation, storage and postal and telecommunication services can efficiently lead to the economy growth of Yunnan.
出处
《中国经济与管理科学》
2008年第1期98-101,114,共5页
Chinese Economy Management Science Magazine
基金
本文为云南大学链川优秀青年教育基金资助项目“云南产业结构：趋势与对策”（项目编号：07KT206）的阶段性成果之一.
关键词
产业结构
经济增长
多元回归分析
协整分析
GRANGER因果检验
Industrial structure Economy growth Multiple regression analysis Cointegrating analysis Granger causality test
