摘要
旱灾是湖南省经济特别是农业生产可持续发展的重要制约因素。通过数学模型对湖南省14个地州市的农业旱情进行定量评估。结果表明,常德、衡阳等地州市旱灾度高,旱情严重;长株潭地区旱灾度低,旱情较轻。并运用灰色系统理论对影响湖南农业干旱的11个因素进行了灰色关联分析。结论是:水田比例的关联度最高,人口密度的关联度次之;单位面积水库塘坝容积关联度最低,抗旱浇地能力次之。因此,控制人口增长缓和人地关系,提高水利化程度,树立长期抗旱的思想,有效地组织抗旱,是减轻湖南农业干旱的重要途径。
Agriculture drought is one of the key factors which drag down the economic development. Applying the math method, a conclusion of assess and analysis on agriculture drought in Hunan can be drown that the agriculture drought in Changde and Hengyang are the most sever, and those are lighter in Chagnsha, Zhuzhou, and Xiangtan. Eleven main Factors influencing the agriculture drought are analysed by applying grey incidence analysis according to the theory and method of grey system. Paddy field and population density are the main factors, while the Capacities of reservoir and the capability on copping agriculture drought are less ones. The paper also points out that several advices about essential ways to agricultural preventing of drought and the ways to improve the ability of coping with agriculture drought in Hunan Province.
出处
《云南地理环境研究》
2008年第1期37-40,64,共5页
Yunnan Geographic Environment Research
关键词
农业旱灾
关联分析
湖南省
agriculture drought
grey incidence analysis
Hunan Province
