摘要
指数平滑法是根据上期实际数和预测值,用指数加权法进行预测的一种方法。根据油田原油产量为随机线性变化趋势,采用二次指数平滑方法进行预测。在传统的方法基础上,根据二次指数预测的特点,对线性模型的参数经过数学推导,得到更为简单和方便的计算方法,可以大大地简化计算过程并提高计算的速度。油田原油产量预测的计算涉及大量的数据,对二次指数平滑计算方法的改进给原油产量预测的计算提供更大的方便,有着现实的重要意义。
Based on the actual number of the scheduled time and prediction value, exponential smoothing is one kind of prediction method using exponential weighting method. According to the random linearity change trend of crude production rate, using the secondary exponential smoothing predicts the crude production rate. Based on the tradition method and the characteristic of secondary exponential prediction, the parameter of linearity model was infered, more simple and convenient calculation method were obtained, which could simplify calculation process greatly and improve the calculation speed. The calculation of crude production rate involves a great deal of data, to improved secondary exponential smoothing calculation method provides greater convenience.
出处
《钻采工艺》
CAS
北大核心
2008年第4期71-73,4,共3页
Drilling & Production Technology
基金
四川省教育厅人文社科重点研究基地项目"鄂尔多斯盆地岩性气藏储量综合评价方法及应用研究"(编号:川油气科SKZ07-01)的部分内容
关键词
指数平滑法
预测
原油产量
油田
exponential smoothing, prediction, crude production rate, oilfield
